Conflict After the Cold War by Betts Richard K

Author:Betts, Richard K. [Unbekannt]
Language: deu
Format: epub
Published: 2017-02-01T15:44:10+00:00

READING 6.1 / Democratization and War

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Reading 6.1

Democratization and War

EDWARD D. MANSFIELD AND JACK SNYDER

DANGERS OF TRANSITION

The idea that democracies never fi ght wars against each other has become an axiom for many scholars. It is, as one scholar puts it, “as close as anything we have to an empirical law in international relations.” This “law” is invoked by American statesmen to justify a foreign policy that encourages democratization abroad. In his 1994 State of the Union address, President Clinton asserted that no two democracies had ever gone to war with each other, thus explaining why promoting democracy abroad was a pillar of his foreign policy.

It is probably true that a world in which more countries were mature, sta-

ble democracies would be safer and preferable for the United States. But countries do not become mature democracies overnight. They usually go through a

rocky transition, where mass politics mixes with authoritarian elite politics in a volatile way. Statistical evidence covering the past two centuries shows that in this transitional phase of democratization, countries become more aggressive and war-prone, not less, and they do fi ght wars with democratic states. In fact, formerly authoritarian states where democratic participation is on the rise are more likely to fi ght wars than are stable democracies or autocracies. States that make the biggest leap, from total autocracy to extensive mass democracy—like contemporary Russia—are about twice as likely to fi ght wars in the decade

after democratization as are states that remain autocracies.

This historical pattern of democratization, belligerent nationalism, and war is already emerging in some of today’s new or partial democracies, especially some formerly communist states. Two pairs of states—Serbia and Croatia, and

Armenia and Azerbaijan—have found themselves at war while experimenting

with varying degrees of electoral democracy. The electorate of Russia’s partial democracy cast nearly a quarter of its votes for the party of radical nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Even mainstream Russian politicians have adopted an

imperial tone in their dealings with neighboring former Soviet republics, and military force has been used ruthlessly in Chechnya.

The following evidence should raise questions about the Clinton adminis-

tration’s policy of promoting peace by promoting democratization. The expec-

tation that the spread of democracy will probably contribute to peace in the long run, once new democracies mature, provides little comfort to those who

Source: Edward D. Mansfi eld and Jack Snyder, “Democratization and War.” Reprinted by permission of Foreign Affairs Vol. 74, No. 3 (May/June 1995). Copyright © 1995 by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc.

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