U.S. Security in the Twenty-First Century by Barry M Blechman

Author:Barry M Blechman [Blechman, Barry M]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Security (National & International), Political Science, General
ISBN: 9780367212360
Google: 4qybDwAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 46180142
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2019-03-05T00:00:00+00:00

The Middle East

The forecast for the Middle East (including both North Africa and Southwest Asia) is surprisingly optimistic given the tremendous conflict and upheaval in the region during the past forty years. Projections of Middle East developments must be carefully hedged, however, and, even the experts seemed to have less confidence in forecasting future trends in this region than in any other.

In effect, there is an unstable balance of two contending social forces in the region. One force, which is modernistic in its direction, incorporates secular, pragmatic, and moderate elements. The second force, which stems from traditional roots, comprises religious, idealistic, and ideological elements. On balance, it appears that the struggle between these contending forces is being won slowly by the modernist tendency. The contest is far from over, however, and the balance could swing perceptibly in response to events. Interestingly, the experts believed that in the long run the outcome will be determined largely by the nations of the region, with the great powers playing only marginal roles. Egypt is probably the swing state in the struggle-the one in which the conflict is drawn most tightly and that will have the most profound effect on neighboring countries. Egypt's position is of particular import for U.S. military planning.

The rate and distribution of economic development are likely to be the crucial determinants of the course of events. There are large masses of people in the region, particularly in the cities, with virtually no connection to organized, secular society, no economic opportunity, and no hope for their own futures. These people tend to be young (more than 50 percent are less than twenty years of age) and far better informed about the world and their relative deprivation--thanks to modern communications than their counterparts were even twenty-five years ago. This is the breeding ground for extremist ideologies--whether religious or secular in origin--that promise escape from present futilities and the achievement of idealistic objectives. The same class of people that provided support for pan-Arab nationalism and leaders like Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser in the 1950s and 1960s now forms the basis for fundamentalist religious movements and the radical policies, such as terrorism, that those movements sometimes espouse.

The primary question is can the economies of the Middle Eastern countries grow fast enough (and can population growth can be contained sufficiently) to offer significantly greater opportunity and better living conditions for the region's populations, thus reducing the appeal of extremist movements. Can key governments implement domestic policies that open up the political processes in their countries somewhat and give their disaffected citizens a sense of participation in government and a stake in maintaining the existing system? In fact, are the moderate governments of the region, together with the United States and other external supporters, capable of pursuing policies that can defuse potential international conflicts, thus avoiding the emergence of new, and the exacerbation of old, "causes" that attract the support of the impoverished classes and thus provide openings for extremists?

The experts' hesitant answer to these questions

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