The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy by Income: Implications for Federal Programs and Policy Responses by Committee on the Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Aging U.S. Population

Author:Committee on the Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Aging U.S. Population
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: ebook, book
Publisher: The National Academies Press
Published: 2015-09-24T00:00:00+00:00

The experiment that the committee performs is based on the program rules as of 2010 and compares outcomes for two hypothetical mortality and health regimes. The first is based on the experience of the 1930 birth cohort, with its initial health status distribution by income quintile and estimated mortality gradient. The second is based similarly on the experience of the (simulated/projected) 1960 birth cohort health status and gradient. Health status does not enter directly into mortality or medical spending, so those outcomes are driven entirely by the mortality gradient as described in Chapter 3.14 Health does influence some economic outcomes, so the differences in initial health prevalence and simulated health transitions for the two cohort regimes will lead to some cohort differences in trajectories in earnings, workforce participation, Social Security claiming, SSI claiming, and DI claiming. And again we emphasize that our estimates are dependent on projections of mortality after age 50, rather than observed levels, for the 1960 cohort.

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