Eurasia's Shifting Geopolitical Tectonic Plates by Petersen Alexandros;Starr S. Frederick;

Author:Petersen, Alexandros;Starr, S. Frederick;
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Lexington Books/Fortress Academic

Chapter 19

Azerbaijan and Georgia

Playing Russian Roulette with Moscow (with Taleh Ziyadov)

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia’s relations with both Azerbaijan and Georgia have been complicated.1 During the first and second Yeltsin administrations (1992–99), Moscow's ambiguous and chaotic foreign policy led to repeated diplomatic and political crises with Baku and Tbilisi. Hoping to keep the two states under Russia's control, the Yeltsin administration applied political pressure and adopted harsh policies towards them. It assisted separatists inside Azerbaijan and Georgia and tried to block their leaders from realizing the U.S.-backed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline project. Moscow’s policies turned out to be counterproductive, pushing both states away from its orbit.

Since 2000, however, Russian President Vladimir Putin redefined Moscow's priorities in the South Caucasus and the “near abroad” shifting the focus from politics to economics. Realizing that the train had left the station regarding the development of the BTC, Putin attempted a normalization of economic relations with Azerbaijan, which has been visibly successful. In contrast, the Kremlin has maintained its chilly attitude towards Tbilisi, and Russian-Georgian relations have remained as cold as ever. Over the course of 2006, the Kremlin banned the sale of Georgian wines in Russia, along with other agricultural products. With the “spy crisis” in September 2006, relations between Tbilisi and Moscow entered an advanced stage of decay.

The Russian government conducted several “clean-up” operations to deport “illegal Georgians” in Russia and instigated a total trade and transportation embargo, and most recently, Russian Gazprom increased the price of gas for Georgia in 2007 from $110 to $235 per thousand cubic meters. But as 2006 drew to a close, Gazprom also announced that it would double the price of gas for Azerbaijan in the coming year. In addition, the Russian giant decided to cut its gas exports to the country from 4.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 1.5 bcm, while electricity supplies were also scheduled to be reduced. These developments took place as Baku and Tbilisi were negotiating a possible gas supply deal from Azerbaijan to Georgia in 2007.

Personal relationships between the leaders of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Russia have been one of the factors that shaped the Kremlin’s divergent policies toward Baku and Tbilisi, and determined their foreign policy decisions towards their northern neighbor. Vladimir Putin and the late President of Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev, developed a close personal relationship that led to improvement of ties between their respective states. The two men had a common background—both were graduates of the Soviet KGB school—and President Putin had respect and affection for President Aliyev, who rose to the ranks of a KGB General during the Soviet Union, a rank higher than Putin’s.

These cordial relations have been preserved under the current President, Ilham Aliyev, who continues to build bilateral ties. However, the former President of Georgia, Eduard Shevardnadze, who also served as the last Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Soviet Union (1985–90), was often blamed by many in Russia for his part in the collapse of the USSR. Hence, Shevardnadze was never

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