All International Politics Is Local by Gleditsch Kristian Skrede;

Author:Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede;
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: University of Michigan Press

Deutsch and the Democratic Peace: Conclusions

In this chapter, I have examined the relationship between regional integration and the prospects for regional peace as well as the relationship of integration to linkages between authority structures and conflict. There is indeed some evidence that differences in the density of regional trade and the affinity between states are associated with zones of regional peace and conflict. In addition, increases in the regional density of trade and a change toward more cooperative interactions between states also appear to be associated with improved prospects for peace in a regional interaction cluster.

However, the relationship between trade density and the absence of conflict seems to display considerable duration dependence. Thus, although trade may be a condition of peace, it is less clear whether outbreaks of conflict are associated with systematic differences in trade. Much of the seeming association appears to stem from low trade densities in conflicts already under way. The nature of prevailing interactions, however, is consistently associated with the presence of conflict as well as outbreaks of new conflicts. In addition, political similarity or heterogeneity is also associated with variation in regional conflict and peace. Despite all the caveats with respect to problems of measurement, these results yield considerable support for the idea that the extent of integration between states may be associated with systematic variation in regional conflict and peace.

Furthermore, variation in observed regional integration does not appear to render the effects of more democratic authority structures on regional conflict and peace without importance. The two components appear to provide separate contributions, and zones with more constrained polities do not seem to be associated with peace merely because of a failure to control for patterns of integration and compatibility between states.

Moreover, there is some evidence that integration and authority structure may not be as closely associated as the proponents of virtuous cycles as well as many critics of the democratic peace have contended. At an empirical level, these components appear to be both separate and to a large extent autonomous. More specifically, democracy and integration seem to coincide primarily among the members of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) and there are few examples of interdependent regional contexts outside Europe and the OECD countries. At the same time, there is more variation in political institutions outside Europe that appears to be associated with regional conflict and peace. This suggests that zones of peace may develop outside the North Atlantic region through constrained institutions even in the absence of widespread integration. This partial autonomy between authority structures and integration also lends some support to the idea that integration and affinity associated with peaceful relations can also arise between entities that are not necessarily liberal democracies.

I have examined the case for some of the most common contenders for nondemocratic peaceful communities in greater detail and find the evidence wanting in several respects. Most proponents seem to argue the potential for such communities in the future rather than positing that they currently exist. Although it

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