Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao

Author:King Yao [Yao, King]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: General Fiction
Publisher: PiYee Press

Applying Math

If all games in the NFL were expected to have the same number of touchdowns, then using 53.3% for the under and 46.7% for the over would be a decent estimate. But reality is not that simple. Some games are expected to be higher scoring than others. If the overall estimate of 53.3% for the under were applied for all games, then that estimate would be too low for high-scoring games and too high for low-scoring games.

To adjust depending on the expected score of the game, use the statistic that 15% of all touchdowns are 0 or 1 yards. Consider the individual teams and their particular characteristics. It is possible the teams in the game have a much higher or a much lower expected percentage of 0- or 1-yard touchdowns than the league average; this tendency may be due to how they play the game rather than randomness. If that is the case, then using the league average to describe those teams may be a mistake. This is discussed further in the section titled “Making refinements.”

First, estimate the number of touchdowns that will be scored in the game. This estimate can come from the total in the game. Usually during the Super Bowl, sportsbooks will have a line on the over/under for the number of touchdowns scored and the number of field goals made. This information can be useful for relative-value comparison purposes.

Next, calculate the expected number of 0- or 1-yard touchdowns that will be scored in the game. If the expected number of touchdowns is 5.0, and you believe 15% of all touchdowns are 0-or 1-yard touchdowns, then the expected number of 0- or 1-yard touchdowns is 0.75 (5 x 15%).

This prop looks like it fits the Poisson distribution. The following is the explanation of the Poisson distribution in Stanford Wong’s Sharp Sports Betting, pp. 151-152 (2006 printing).

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