Projecting Environmental Trends from Economic Forecasts by Peter B Meyer Thomas S Lyons Tara L Clapp

Author:Peter B Meyer, Thomas S Lyons, Tara L Clapp [Peter B Meyer, Thomas S Lyons, Tara L Clapp]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781138726055
Barnesnoble:
Goodreads: 42991740
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2000-08-01T00:00:00+00:00

Summary of findings

Our project team pursued advisory input on the key policy context factors and economic activity sectors in order to focus our modeling and forecasting efforts. Our objective was to expend resources only on the issues that a broader constituency considered important to the future of the Kentucky economy and environment. Changes in policy contexts — attitudes, tastes, and regulations — could help shape the relationship between economic activity and environmental impacts in the state. These changes played a key role in guiding the construction of the different scenarios on environmental attitudes and technologies that were then considered in our forecasting simulations. The economic sectors, by contrast, provided the focus for the construction of alternative economic projections. The baseline economic projection was constructed from projecting current trends in Kentucky; alternate economic paths were constructed from nonlinear changes brought about by more or less likely sectoral changes in economic conditions.

The advisory group afforded guidance and parameters for establishing a project focus. The universe of economic policies that might potentially be examined is quite large. The advisory group made the research effort manageable by identifying what they viewed to be the most important policy contexts, issue areas, and economic sectors to be addressed. The work of the project advisory planning group thus shaped the scenario analyses.

The advisory group consistently named education, not just environmental education or literacy, as a major component of a sustainable future. Education issues were featured throughout the discussions. We observed that the consultative process engaged participants in communication and information sharing. The experience and changing perspectives of the advisory group illustrated the importance of education through this engagement. As the group was asked to think progressively more deeply about the issues, they adapted and refined their views. For example, their conception of economy-environment interaction changed from one in which there was little emphasis on economic trends to their perception as a central factor later in the process.

Our findings highlight the evolutionary and developmental nature of thinking about environmental policy choices and the contexts in which they must be made. There is a need for ongoing dialogue between policy makers, regulatory officials and those responding to regulatory controls, environmental scientists and engineers, and educators in the environmental arena. In our experience, while new information is constantly becoming available, the extent of misunderstanding and incomplete knowledge is great.

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