NAVAL ANALYTICAL CAPABILITIES: IMPROVING CAPABILITIES-BASED PLANNING by National Research Council of the National Academies

Author:National Research Council of the National Academies
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Conflict and Security Issues : Military and Defense Studies
Publisher: NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Published: 2005-09-26T00:00:00+00:00

• Trivializing uncertainty issues by examining a variety of name-level (or specific) scenarios (e.g., in a DOD context, the “WestPac” scenario), but approaching each such scenario in the traditional, myopic way, holding constant all of the many assumptions that distinguish one case from another within the scenario. For the purposes of CBP, there are often more important variations across cases within a given name-level scenario than across name-level scenarios.

• Trivializing exploratory analysis, which is a core element of CBP, by conducting only a few excursions with one or a few assumptions changed (typically in organizationally comfortable ways), while other assumptions are held constant as though certain.11

11An older example of this problem was the tendency of DOD studies to assume that adversaries were highly capable and motivated, thereby biasing analysis against concepts of operations calling for rapid action by small forces. A more recent example was the analysis for the Iraq war that uncritically accepted assumptions about the nature of the postwar environment rather than laying out starkly the consequences of different assumptions. In the Navy context, key assumptions often relate to the availability of other-Service assets, concepts of operation, and enemy strategy.

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.