Living With the Dragon: How the American Public Views the Rise of China by Benjamin I. Page & Tao Xie

Author:Benjamin I. Page & Tao Xie [Page, Benjamin I. & Xie, Tao]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: International Relations, Political Science, Asia, History, General
ISBN: 9780231525497
Google: 3ZFePDpM_PAC
Goodreads: 21977900
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Published: 2010-06-11T00:00:00+00:00

FIGURE 5.4

Favorable opinions of China (four-alternative question), 1977–2009

Source: For 1979–2007, Gallup surveys retrieved from http://institution.gallup.com/content/?ci=1627; for 2008–2009, from Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, www.ropercenter.uconn.edu. Note: “Don’t know” and “no opinion” responses were excluded. Question wording: “Next, I’d like your overall opinion of some foreign countries. First, is your overall opinion of China very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?”

Between the “before Tiananmen” survey of February 1989 and the “after Tiananmen” survey of August 1989, for example, the four-alternative data show a stunning drop from 72% of Americans favorable toward China to just 34% favorable.24 Tiananmen was truly a watershed event in Americans’ views of China—not purely because of the events themselves, but also because of the strongly negative reactions by U.S. officials and human rights groups, which persisted—and continued to influence public opinion—long after many Americans may have forgotten Tiananmen.

During the course of the 1990s and the 2000s there were some small ups and downs in feelings toward China: a temporary rise to 40% favorable in February 1994, after President Clinton announced a policy of “constructive engagement” with China and met with President Jiang Zemin in Seattle; a drop to 33% by June 1997, more than a year after the tense confrontation over Chinese missile tests off Taiwan, which had aimed to deter Taiwanese voters from electing an independence-minded president; then a rise to 44% in July 1998, followed by a drop back to just 34% favorable in March 1999, amid accusations that China was stealing nuclear secrets from the United States.25

But favorable feelings then recovered and stayed rather stable, near 45%, through most of the 2000s.26 The main point is that throughout the post-Tiananmen period—as many U.S. human rights groups, commentators, and political leaders (especially in the House of Representatives)27 continued to criticize China—Americans’ feelings toward China have remained lukewarm at best, and quite cool at worst. Opinion has never again come close to the pre-Tiananmen 72% favorable figure of February 1989.

What should we make of the ups and downs in Americans’ feelings toward China? What can they tell us about the causes of opinion change, or about the reasons why people feel the way they do?

One clear point is that the state of official relations between the United States and China affects the American public’s feelings. Friendly visits and diplomatic agreements, especially in the early years (e.g., Nixon’s 1972 visit), have generally brought warmer feelings toward China. Conflicts and disagreements have brought cooler feelings. This has been particularly true when there have been clear national security implications or possibilities of military conflict, as in the 1954 and 1996 straits crises and the 1999 nuclear spying accusations.

The Deng economic and political reforms starting in 1978 almost certainly contributed to the strong rise in Americans’ favorable feelings toward China up to the late 1980s. Less clear have been the effects of the growing economic relationship—increased imports and exports and investments—between the United States and China. These ties, growing fairly smoothly (though very rapidly) over time, have probably

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