Disequilibrium, Polarization, and Crisis Model by Dierauer Isabelle;

Author:Dierauer, Isabelle;
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780761861065
Publisher: UPA

Risky decisions

Both cases illustrate that when groups believe themselves in the total losses, they try to escape the hopeless situation by making risky and bold decisions. The rigid system increases the feeling of threat and loss in both blocs as there is no solution visible. Both blocs felt that only absolute control would guarantee that they did not lose all control. But this position creates even less flexibility as parties are ever firmer in their positions. In the Yugoslav case, Serbia considered a confederacy a threat to its identity and existence as a specific nationality; in contrast, Slovenia and Croatia regarded a strong Serbian led central federation as a threat to its identities and existence. In the US Civil War, both sections felt that if the other section would gain control of the newly acquired territory, they would lose their cultural/economic system and their way of life, as the winning section would force their cultural/economic system and values upon the losing section. Both cases illustrate that, as actors felt in the total loss, they undertook risky decisions and provoked war.

In Yugoslavia, Slovenia felt in the losses as the Serbian delegation insisted on a centralist federal state, consequently it walked out of the government declaring sovereignty, which caused the ending of the federal government of Yugoslavia. Then, it made the risky decision to declare independence with the knowledge that this would lead to war with Serbia. Croatia declared independence and adopted new laws which forbid the Cyrillic script which was traditionally used by Serbs in its territory. They laid off every Serb in the police force, the judiciary, and the educational institutions in the territory of Croatia. Additionally, they took out the historic checkerboard flag which was used during the Ustashe regime that had committed genocide against Serbs during the Second World War. All those actions were intended to provoke a Serbian military response. Serbia which felt in the total losses conducted a military response.

In the Civil War case, the South felt in the total losses as power began to tilt even more toward the North. As Kansas, Oregon, and Minnesota all entered the union as free states the House and the Senate began to be in control by the North and the South believed that the balance was broken irretrievable. As President Lincoln, a northern abolitionist and fee soil proponent, was elected president, the South felt in the total losses. Consequently, to escape all this pain and the hopeless situation and to gain control back, the South made the risky decision to secede from the Union, to open fire at Fort Sumter, thus provoking war with the North.

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