What is the Future? by Urry John;

Author:Urry, John; [Неизв.]
Language: eng
Format: epub, mobi
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2016-09-13T20:00:00+00:00

Four possible futures

Futurist Brian Johnson from Intel proposed that science fiction (SF) should be a method for futures work. He argued that thinking about the future of current innovations is core to companies where final products appeared many years after patents were submitted and exhaustive testing and prototyping conducted (Johnson 2011: 31). He presents SF prototyping as an emergent tool within forecasting – a ‘prototype’ in this context is ‘a story or a fictional depiction of a product’ (Johnson 2011: 12). SF is not just a resource to draw upon for possible imaginings of future worlds, but also a technique for generating scenarios through developing characters, plots and narrative stories: ‘stories are not about technology, megatrends or predictions’ – rather, the ‘future is about people’ (Johnson 2011: 5).

The usefulness of SF within ‘futures thinking’ is shown elsewhere (see Birtchnell, Urry 2013b; Collie 2011). And there are significant examples of scientists themselves being influenced by SF. In many cases, the writer works in dialogue with scientific inquiry, extending the argument in ways that scientists are unable to do, as well as thinking through the social consequences of innovation (McCurdy 2011: 15; Verne 2005).

Four detailed scenarios of manufacturing futures are now set out, drawing upon media commentaries, twitter feeds, science fiction novels, expert presentations at conferences, reports, interviews and opinion pieces (these are drawn from Birtchnell, Urry 2013b). There are two axes: the first measures the affordability of 3D printing, and the capacity for users to learn and master everyday functions and develop social practices around 3D printing. The second axis concerns the degree to which large corporations dominate 3D development or whether there are many groups within civil society that are 3D printing. In plotting four distinct worlds, attention is paid to the systems and challenges emerging within societies up to 2030, including the impacts of climate change and energy scarcity. These four scenarios are now set out – each, illustrated by a brief vignette, drawing from a range of empirical materials. They were the basis of a scenario workshop held in London in 2013.

The first scenario is that of Desktop Factories in the Home. Here, people engage with 3D on an everyday basis. Corporate control over the innovation is reduced through open source sharing of designs and technologies, as well as piracy. In this scenario, 3D scanners and/or printers are common in people's homes. The character Ben highlights the role of education, childhood and family life (Barlex, Stevens 2012), since children would be likely to lead the adoption of 3D, especially via school projects and technical classes.

My name is Ben and I was born in 2020. I'm trying to finish my homework but my sister, Lucy, is using the printer again for the new bracelet she's been designing all weekend. Everyone at school has a 3D printer at home now (we finally got one last year) and the teachers regularly give us assignments to design and print out all sorts of things to bring to class.

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