The Turnout Myth by Daron Shaw;John Petrocik;

Author:Daron Shaw;John Petrocik; [Неизв.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: OUP Premium
Published: 2019-01-06T21:00:00+00:00

Once again, the data do not back the conventional wisdom. The midterm decline effects are positive for the Democrats in the 2006 and 2010 elections, indicating that decreased turnout coincided with a relative increase in Democratic vote share. In 2014 the relationship between decreased turnout and Democratic vote share is negative, but it is also marginal. All in all, the data provide little or no evidence that the fortunes of Democratic House candidates are driven by variation in district-level turnout from one election to the next, whether looked at from the off- to the on-year or from the presidential year to the off-year. More satisfying explanations of surge and decline require the introduction of contextual and political factors that are largely uncorrelated with turnout.

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.