The Precipice by Toby Ord

Author:Toby Ord [ORD, TOBY]
Language: eng
Format: epub, mobi
Publisher: Hachette Books
Published: 2020-03-24T00:00:00+00:00

CHOICES

I have sketched three dimensions of humanity’s potential: the vistas of time, space and experience that the future holds. My concern has not been to paint a detailed picture, but to persuade you, more generally, that we stand before something extraordinarily vast and valuable—something in light of which all of history thus far will seem the merest prelude; a taste; a seed. Beyond these outlines, the substance of our future is mostly unknown. Our descendants will create it.

If we steer humanity to a place of safety, we will have time to think. Time to ensure that our choices are wisely made; that we will do the very best we can with our piece of the cosmos. We rarely reflect on what that might be. On what we might achieve should humanity’s entire will be focused on gaining it, freed from material scarcity and internal conflict. Moral philosophy has been focused on the more pressing issues of treating each other decently in a world of scarce resources. But there may come a time, not too far away, when we mostly have our house in order and can look in earnest at where we might go from here. Where we might address this vast question about our ultimate values. This is the Long Reflection.

I do not know what will come out of it. What ideas will stand the test of time; of careful analysis by thinkers of all kinds, each anxious to avoid any bias that may doom us to squander our potential. I do not know in what proportions it will be a vision of flourishing, of virtue, of justice, of achievement; nor what final form any of these aspects may take. I do not know whether it will be a vision that transcends these very divisions in how we think of the good.

We might compare our situation with that of people 10,000 years ago, on the cusp of agriculture. Imagine them sowing their first seeds and reflecting upon what opportunities a life of farming might enable, and on what the ideal world might look like. Just as they would be unable to fathom almost any aspect of our current global civilization, so too we may not yet be able to see the shape of an ideal realization of our potential.

This chapter has focused on humanity’s potential—on the scope of what we might someday be able to achieve. Living up to this potential will be another great challenge in itself. And vast efforts will be undertaken in an attempt to rise to this challenge. But they can wait for another day. These battles can be fought by our successors. Only we can make sure we get through this period of danger, that we navigate the Precipice and find our way to safety; that we give our children the very pages on which they will author our future.

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