The Islamic State in Khorasan by Giustozzi Antonio;

Author:Giustozzi, Antonio;
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: C. Hurst and Company (Publishers) Limited
Published: 2018-03-15T00:00:00+00:00

Table 9: claimed and estimated IS-K membership16

Date Total membership of IS-K according to internal sources Total membership of IS-K according to external observers Of which support staff

Apr-15 4500 – –

Jun-15 5200 – –

Jan-16 – 7–11,500 –

Jun-16 9500 – 1200

Jan-17 20,000 – –

Geographic spread

Alongside claims of growth in numbers, IS-K sources also claimed to be spreading geographically. In June 2015 they claimed to be present in seventeen provinces (Map 5); by January 2016 they claimed a presence in twenty provinces.17 The same sources indicated that in June 2015, apart from a concentration of forces in Nangarhar, where the conflict with the Taliban was just starting, IS-K forces were rather spread out (Map 5). Afghan NDS sources estimated in January 2016 that IS-K was present in sixty-five districts, mostly in Nangarhar, Zabul, Herat, Farah, Helmand, Nimruz, Paktika, Badakhshan, Kunduz, Baghlan, Faryab and Laghman.18 The presence of IS-K in Pakistan as of the end of 2016 is illustrated in Map 8.

As mentioned above, information about IS-K’s presence in Iran and Central Asia is much harder to corroborate. The Iranian authorities regularly reported discovering and destroying IS guerrilla groups, but there seem two distinct infiltration paths at least, one via Kurdistan, which is unrelated to IS-K, and one through Baluchistan, which is instead related. Given that as discussed in ‘Harakat Khilafat Baluch’ below, IS-K has only a few hundred Iranian Baluchis in its ranks, and since they are divided between Iran and Pakistan, its presence inside Sistan is unlikely to be more than 200–300 men.19 The attack on the Iranian parliament and on the Khomeini shrine on 7 June 2017 showed that IS-K’s capabilities in Iran were not limited to Sistan. According to a source in IS-K Iran, there are three separate groups that constitute it:

•Harakat Khilafat Baluch;

•Khorasan Branch of Iran;

•West Azerbaijan Islamic Movement.

In total these groups according to the source count on over 800 members, more than half of them Baluchis and the rest mostly Kurds, with some Arabs, Farsi-speakers and Azeris. All the members are the Sunni religious minority. Around 200 foreign fighters support this small number of local recruits. IS-K Iran was originally led by Abu Hafs Al Baluchi, replaced then by Sheikh Hamza Rigi, a former member of Jundullah who served in Syria. According to the source IS-K Iran grew quickly from the 300 members it had in 2016, thanks to abundant funding, but suffered in 2017 from the cancellation of all Qatari support, although Saudi funding quickly made up for that. The Qatari authorities allegedly even shared intelligence on IS-K with the Iranians.20

In Central Asia too groups affiliated with IS are divided between those depending directly on IS-Central (Tajikistan) and those depending on IS-K (Kyrghizstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan). In both cases members who cross into Afghanistan come under the authority of IS-K. IS-K membership within the Central Asian borders was estimated, by sources in IS-K and in Central Asian groups affiliated to it, at 750 men.21

There is also some evidence that IS-K is trying to attract Indian jihadists as well.

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