The Future, Declassified by Mathew Burrows

Author:Mathew Burrows [Burrows, Mathew]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Published: 2014-08-09T00:00:00+00:00

Should India fail to rise or Japan to temper its relative decline, the Sinocentric order becomes more likely. Should the United States’ core Asian partners possess less capability or willingness to balance the Chinese themselves, the United States may need to step up involvement as a counterbalance, risking a direct contest with China.

Besides a continuing US commitment to a strong role in the region, Chinese weakness is perhaps the biggest uncertainty. If Beijing gets caught in the middle-income trap and fails to transition to an advanced economy, it will remain a top-tier player in Asia, but the influence surrounding what has been a remarkable rise will dissipate. Under these circumstances, China may become a more aggressive power with the leadership trying to divert attention away from its domestic problems. A conflict with one of its neighbors or with the United States that China lost could also puncture its standing. On the other hand, a victory would increase the chances of a Sinocentric order.

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