The Danger within Us by Jeanne Lenzer

Author:Jeanne Lenzer
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Little, Brown and Company
Published: 2017-12-12T00:00:00+00:00

the probability that a woman has breast cancer is 1 percent (prevalence);

if a woman has breast cancer, the probability that she tests positive is 90 percent (sensitivity);

if a woman does not have breast cancer, the probability that she nevertheless tests positive is 9 percent (false positive rate).

Then the doctors were asked: if a woman has a positive test on mammography (“positive” means she might have cancer), what is the chance she actually has cancer?

A. The probability that she has breast cancer is about 81 percent

B. Out of ten women with a positive mammogram, about nine have breast cancer

C. Out of ten women with a positive mammogram, about one has breast cancer

D. The probability that she has breast cancer is about 1 percent

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