The Biggest Bluff by Maria Konnikova

Author:Maria Konnikova [Konnikova, Maria]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Penguin Publishing Group
Published: 2020-06-23T00:00:00+00:00

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THE REST OF THE trip, I keep playing through the layers of Lodden Thinks in my mind. It’s a neat distillation of so much of what I’ve been trying to articulate about the complexity of poker—and the complexity of the life decisions that it models. It’s a constant circle. There’s the math, the calculations, the strategy derived from hundreds of thousands of—yes—Monte Carlo simulations for the game-theoretical solutions. But there’s so much more. As von Neumann knew, the human always gets in the way of the mathematical model. That’s why he couldn’t even build the perfect model: he wanted humanity, and humanity could always surprise you. You need to know the base strategy. You need to adjust based on the specific individuals. And then you need to adjust further based on how those specific individuals are feeling in that exact moment, in that exact situation. And what if they don’t fully analyze everything themselves and, like Dan, confidently state the wrong guess about their own preferences, forgetting for a moment what such a guess would actually mean? You have to account for that, too. Otherwise you’ll lose the bout of Lodden, the hand of poker, the tactical negotiation. Someone can always be confidently wrong, even about their own mind.

I play on. I eat my thirty-euro pizza. I get kicked out of a dining room along with my dining companions because the prince of Monaco has decided to eat there that evening. (We’re rewarded with a free dinner. I’ll take the prince kicking me out any day.) I get a plate of soy sauce spilled on my only sweater in a fancy beachfront restaurant, only to be told it can’t be cleaned for the next three days because of a strike. I learn that the secret to surviving in Monaco is to leave Monaco. A ten-minute walk, and you’re in France, where dinner can be had for fifteen euros and orange juice costs just about what you’d expect. I befriend some players who tell me about a local Airbnb that’s less than a mile away and costs a fraction of my hotel. They offer me a spot in the house for the following year. A few more days and I’ll practically be a native. I’m learning to survive on the tour.

Over ten days, I enter a total of six tournaments and end up cashing in three of them—two more min cashes to follow my €1K debut. Ninety-third out of 624 in the €440 Cup, good for €730, or a €290 profit, and eighteenth out of 138 in the €1,100 six-max, named for the fact that a maximum of six players is allowed to sit at any table, down from the typical nine or ten. That one yields me €1,840, a whole €740 profit! Forgive the exclamation point. I’m thrilled. I can’t believe that I’m actually making money at poker tournaments. I’ve made €1,470 in just over a week. If I cash at this rate, I think, I’m golden. It can’t be far to go until Main Event glory.

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