Thinking, Fast and Slow by Kahneman Daniel

Author:Kahneman, Daniel [Kahneman, Daniel]
Language: eng
Format: epub, mobi, azw3, pdf
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Published: 2011-10-24T14:00:00+00:00

If you prefer an apple to a banana,

then

you also prefer a 10% chance to win an apple to a 10% chance to win a banana.

The apple and the banana stand for any objects of choice (including gambles), and the 10% chance stands for any probability. The mathematician John von Neumann, one of the giant intellectual figures of the twentieth century, and the economist Oskar Morgenstern had derived their theory of rational choice between gambles from a few axioms. Economists adopted expected utility theory in a dual role: as a logic that prescribes how decisions should be made, and as a description of how Econs make choices. Amos and I were psychologists, however, and we set out to understand how Humans actually make risky choices, without assuming anything about their rationality.

We maintained our routine of spending many hours each day in conversation, sometimes in our offices, sometimes at restaurants, often on long walks through the quiet streets of beautiful Jerusalem. As we had done when we studied judgment, we engaged in a careful examination of our own intuitive preferences. We spent our time inventing simple decision problems and asking ourselves how we would choose. For example:

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