Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don't Know by David Apgar

Author:David Apgar [Apgar, David]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Published: 2009-05-28T09:33:00+00:00

The factors are the probability of the evidence if the hypothesis is true and the probability of the evidence no matter what hypothesis is true. The whole expression is:

It may help to relate the formula term by term back to the bid suggested by a successful test from the third focus research panel. The $50,000 bid recommendation means there's a 50 percent chance that the advertising plans are right, given a successful test. It equals the 5 percent initial probability times a 100 percent probability of a successful test, given an accurate plan, divided by a 10 percent probability of a successful test for all plans.

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