Much Sound and Fury, or the New Jim Crow?: The Twenty-First Century's Restrictive New Voting Laws and Their Impact by Michael A. Smith

Author:Michael A. Smith [Smith, Michael A.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, Civil Rights, Political Process, Campaigns & Elections, Social Science, Sociology, General
ISBN: 9781438486833
Google: lNBizgEACAAJ
Amazon: B091Q8863C
Barnesnoble: B091Q8863C
Goodreads: 57644531
Publisher: State University of New York Press
Published: 2022-01-01T00:00:00+00:00

Variables about race and Hispanic/Latino origin were not used because of a large number of missing cases in the dataset.

Table 4.1 summarizes results from the first model using whether or not the respondent voted as the dependent variable. Among the control variables, education and age correlate strongly and positively with voting, but education and age squared correlate negatively with voting, as predicted. What this means is that older age and higher levels of education do mean a greater likelihood of voting, but this relationship declines or even reverses at very high levels of each (holding a graduate degree or being more than 80 years old, for example). Region was not significant.

Table 4.1. Dependent Variable: Whether or Not the Respondent Voted

Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)

Intercept^ 2.967e-02 7.014e-02 0.423 0.67232

Education level 4.144e-02 3.724e-03 11.126 <2e-16***

Education level squared –4.002e-04 3.678e-05 –10.879 <2e-16***

Age 1.017e-02 2.559e-03 3.976 7.21e-05***

Age squared –5.545e-05 2.534e-05 –2.188 0.02873*

Region: Northeast^ –1.581e-02 2.692e-02 –0.587 0.55702

Region: North Central^ 1.937e-02 2.320e-02 0.835 0.40384

Region: South^ –1.061e-03 2.277e-02 –0.047 0.96283

Was R contacted? 4.825e-02 1.800e-02 2.681 0.00740**

R live in state requesting photo ID? –4.566e-02 6.011e-02 –0.760 0.44760

R live in state requiring photo ID? –6.923e-02 6.248e-02 –1.108 0.26802

R live in state complicating voting after felony? 1.473e-01 6.003e-02 2.454 0.01421*

R live in state complicating voter registration? –1.444e-02 2.875e-02 –0.502 0.61547

R live in a state restricting early voting? –6.927e-03 4.160e-02 –0.167 0.86777

ID Request*Contacted 1.862e-01 7.144e-02 2.606 0.00922**

PhotoID*Contacted 5.366e-04 8.160e-02 0.007 0.99475

Restore after felony* Contacted –1.183e-01 8.973e-02 –1.319 0.18737

Registration complication* Contacted 2.400e-02 3.935e-02 0.610 0.54189

Restricted early voting* Contacted 1.798e-03 5.471e-02 0.033 0.97378

^The “default” region is West.

Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 01 ‘ ’ 1

As to the variables of interest, there is a clear link between the voter’s being contacted and her being more likely to vote. Of course, correlation does not cause causation—it may be that those already intending to vote are also being contacted by campaigns, or perhaps mobilization is at work, or it may be a combination. At any rate, the correlation between the two variables is clear.

With regard to the stand-alone variables measuring restrictive new state voting laws, a puzzle we discovered in earlier research—with completely different data (Smith, Rackaway, & Anderson, 2014)—reasserts itself yet again: the respondent is more likely to vote in the states that passed new restrictions on voting after a felony conviction. Two of the three states to which this applies are famously high-turnout states (Iowa and South Dakota)—but it is a puzzle that the “North Central” region variable did not control this effect. If indeed voters are more likely to vote when such laws pass, it is for now a matter of speculation as to why, but one possible explanation is that voters have more confidence in the system when these controls on those with a criminal past are present. Iowa’s new law, for example, requires that any fines and restitution handed down as part of a sentence be paid in full before voting rights will be restored—this may increase confidence that the system is not allowing some

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