Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation by Boateng Prince; Chen Zhen; Ogunlana Stephen O

Author:Boateng, Prince; Chen, Zhen; Ogunlana, Stephen O.
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Emerald Publishing Limited
Published: 2017-04-24T16:00:00+00:00

5.2.3. System Boundaries

After the ANP’s pairwise comparison, a model boundary was formed and a dynamic hypothesis, also known as CLD was developed. The model boundary is used to define the limit within which each STEEP risk model will operate. It is a representation of ‘how far in the future should a modeller consider and/or how far back in the past lie the roots of the problem?’ (Sterman, 2010). Tables 5.2–5.6 illustrate the system boundaries for each of the five system models under discussion in this chapter.

To specify a model boundary, the modeller must separate the initial components list into two important groups. In this chapter there are two ‘risk types’ in each of the STEEP risk system boundaries.

Risk ‘type I’ represents Endogenous variables — dynamic variables involved in the feedback loops of the system. The behaviours of these variables are generated within each STEEP model.

Risk ‘type I’ represents Exogenous variables — components whose values are not directly affected by the system. These types of variables can be considered as essential parameters with values coming from the ANP Risk Priority Indexes (RPIs).

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