Factfulness Sustainability: What you should know about Ecological Crises and Resource Consumption by Thomas Unnerstall

Author:Thomas Unnerstall
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9783662655580
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Evaluation/Forecast

Global copper use is very likely to rise sharply. Assuming a Western level of consumption for 10–11 billion people, we are looking at 60–70 million tons/year. At the same time, the trend of increasing recycling rates already observed in recent decades will continue. On this basis, it is possible to make a forecast – similar to that for iron – for the expected copper raw material demand, i.e. for copper mining in the twenty-first century.

Copper mining is expected to reach a peak in the order of 40 million tons in the second half of the twenty-first century and then slowly decline again due to further increasing recycling quantities: Fig. 10.6.

Fig. 10.6Use of copper in the world, 1960–2100, divided into raw material and old scrap; forecast values from 2020. (Sources: World Copper Factbook, USGS, Glöser et al. (2013), International Copper Association, own calculations)

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