Does Policy Analysis Matter? by Friedman Lee S

Author:Friedman, Lee S.
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780520287396
Publisher: University of California Press

The battle between the popular and the high-minded needs to be fought out somewhere. In any society, common sense versus expertise is an opposition that will not go away. In the American system, it is up for grabs how much we are willing to trust scientific, bureaucratic, legal, or moral experts. Congress helps supply an assurance that their ideas need to be sold, not just proclaimed. (2009: 361)

Projecting Outcomes

Policy analysis is predictive (Wildavsky 1979). It asks, What will happen if a policy option is enacted? Will a new program deliver on its promises? How much will it cost? And what unintended consequences could it create?

Congress relies heavily on the budget projections of the CBO, which is required by law to produce a formal cost estimate for nearly every bill that is reported by a full committee. By all accounts, CBO budget scores have a massive impact on congressional debate (Joyce 2011). Indeed, a case can be made that CBO budget projections have too much influence, sometimes causing members to focus too much on (highly uncertain) short-term budget projections at the expense of an analysis of the broader costs and benefits of a policy option. As one interviewee stated, “CBO cost estimates are very important as it is difficult to get to the floor of the House or Senate without them. It is really the drafts of the cost estimates and mandates that cause committee staff to reconsider approaches. The public seldom sees this happening, but it is very important.” There have been many occasions when CBO budget scoring has had a significant impact on the political development and outcome of major reform proposals. One famous example is the CBO’s review of President Clinton’s health reform plan in 1994 (Joyce 2011). The administration had argued that the plan would save money, but the CBO determined it would increase the deficit. Moreover, while the administration had claimed that the transactions of the health alliances were private and therefore should not be included in the federal budget, the CBO ruled that the transactions were budgetary in nature, making it easier for opponents to argue that the plan would vastly expand federal government activity. Some political analysts believe the CBO’s rulings contributed to the demise of the Clinton health plan (Skocpol 1996).

In addition to budget scores, the CBO prepares analytic reports on the effects of legislative proposals at the request of the Congressional leadership or chairmen or ranking members of committees or subcommittees. These reports make no recommendations, but may contain findings that favor one side or another of a political debate. For example, a 1995 CBO report projected that few small businesses and farms would have to be liquidated to pay the estate tax under the rules scheduled to be in effect in 2009 (CBO 1995). A recent history of the CBO, supported by many case examples, concludes that the studies produced by the agency cannot get Congress to do something it does not want to do, though at times it can improve the content of a law that Congress was poised to enact (Joyce 2011).

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