Deglobalization and International Security by T.X. Hammes;

Author:T.X. Hammes; [Hammes, T.]
Format: epub, pdf
Publisher: Cambria Press
Published: 2019-09-21T20:00:00+00:00

Chapter 5

Military Impact

The technologies of the fourth industrial revolution are also dramatically changing the character of conflict. The convergence of these ever-improving technologies is providing sharply increased capabilities to smaller and smaller political entities—extending even to the individual. This chapter will discuss the implications this diffusion of power has for the character of warfare and then explore how selected technologies are changing conflict.

However, it is essential to understand that the fundamental nature of war (what it is) will not change even as its character (how it is fought) changes dramatically. The nature of war will remain rooted in Clausewitz’s primary trinity of passion, chance, and reason. After the Gulf War, the U.S. Department of Defense claimed that technology was changing the nature of war. It would allow U.S. leaders to see and understand everything that was happening on the battlefield while preventing the enemy from doing so. Technology would create a revolution in military affairs.

To make it work, the Department of Defense stated it needed to explore organizations and procedures along with the new technologies.1 Unfortunately, throughout the 1990s, the department focused primarily on technology. It was convinced technology would allow U.S. forces to “lock out” all enemy courses of action.2 The reality fell far short of these expectations.

Despite decades of development and experimentation, technology has not allowed U.S. forces to dominate a wide range of insurgent and terrorist movements. The successes U.S. forces enjoyed have consistently been based on operational and tactical adaption rather than on technological prowess. It is critical to remember this fact. Human adaptation in the operational and tactical sphere are more important than superior technology. History is full of examples of technologically superior forces being defeated by superior ingenuity and adaptability on the part of their enemies.

As U.S. forces drew down in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Department of Defense shifted its focus to potential conflicts with near-peer competitors—and once again turned to technology. In 2014, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel announced the Defense Innovation Initiative or, as it is more commonly known, the Third Offset Strategy. Clearly, this was a vital effort on the part of the department and, if successful, will pay significant dividends.

However, the fourth industrial revolution will not just change how nations fight but will change the framework of conflict as it recasts society, the state, and military organizations. A key point is that the warfare changes discussed in this chapter will be happening simultaneously with and driven by economic, social, and political changes. As was the case with the previous industrial revolutions, this one will restructure the global economy, international trade patterns, and the ways and means which militaries use to achieve strategic goals.

This chapter will address how creative operational concepts can use emerging technologies—nano, drones, artificial intelligence, and space in particular—to change conflict in all domains. In addition, it will also explore hypervelocity weapons. In contrast to the small, smart, and cheap weapons the other technologies are allowing, hypervelocity will be expensive but, if it succeeds, will have a massive impact on the character of war.

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