Curve Ball by Jim Albert & Jay Bennett

Author:Jim Albert & Jay Bennett
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer-Verlag New York, Inc. 2001
Published: 2015-02-18T16:00:00+00:00

Using Table 7-6 (or Table 7-5), we can calculate the average value of a home run. This is done by simply multiplying its value in each situation by the percentage of times the situation occurs, then summing over all situations:

What does this value represent? Certainly we have seen that in Lindsey’s model, some HRs are worth less than 1.42 runs while others are worth more. But on average, for a large sample of situations, Lindsey found that in 1959–1960, a good estimate of the value of a home run was 1.42 runs.

The next question, naturally, is what about the average run values for other plays? Lindsey performed calculations following the same procedure for singles, doubles, and triples. For now, we will just summarize our own numbers, based on Lindsey’s calculations, in Table 7-7.9 On average, the difference between the most and least valuable hits is less than one run. More intriguing are the run value ratios which indicate that a HR is on average about three times as productive as a single. For the sake of comparison, the rightmost column presents the relative values of these hits in terms of bases. We see that a base interpretation of value appears to overestimate the run value of extra-base hits. Besides the home run, a triple is worth less than three times the runs of a single, and a double is worth less than twice the runs of a single. Table 7-7 Average Values of Hits with Respect to Runs and Bases

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