Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios by Liam Fahey;Robert M. Randall by Liam Fahey;Robert M. Randall

Author:Liam Fahey;Robert M. Randall
Language: eng
Format: epub, pdf

Indicators to Monitor

An observer of the industry who has studied a number of plausible scenarios-and the milepost events that mark the steps toward a given end state-has gained, in effect, a bird's eye view of the future that may actually emerge. Therefore, a critical output of a set of scenarios is the identification of the indicators that should be watched to determine which future, or end state, is emerging. Since the purpose of scenarios is to learn from the future, and preferably to do so before your competitors, indicators that allow a firm to anticipate the evolution of its industry are key outputs of industry scenario exercises.

A set of scenarios can produce a number of indicators that are common to every future in the set and those that are unique to each scenario. Each end state depicted in Exhibit 11.3 shares some common indicators that allow OPtech managers to track competitors' marketing/sales expenditures and the emergence of substitute products. In addition, indicators such as rivals' actual expenditures on advertising, trade/industry shows, promotional materials and salesforce support, announcements of intent to increase such expenditures, and customers' comments about competitors' marketing/sales commitments and plans, can be used to track competitors' current or potential marketing/sales expenditures. These indicators are relevant to each scenario plot or end state. The changes in the indicators you detect and monitor indicate the emergence of one scenario or another. For example, if the marketing/ sales indicators noted were to reveal that competitors were adding new advertising programs, creating major new industry/trade show extravaganzas, and adding new salespeople, there would be little doubt but that marketing intensity was on the rise.

When indicators are distinct or unique to a particular end state or plot, they are critical to detecting the emergence of that scenario. For example, in the Switching Battle scenario, one such indictor might be, Are hospitals sharing information about the new laser technology?

When an indicator first appears is also important. For example, the first public support of the new laser product by a prominent surgeon in promotional material or as part of a formal presentation at a medical convention may be a critical indicator of the possible speed with which the laser product may penetrate the community of surgeons.

It is also essential to monitor the rate of change along key indicators. In the Subdued Product Contest and Switching Battle scenarios, for instance, the rate of change in the laser product competitor's manufacturing output or adoption on a trial basis by surgeons in different types of hospitals could significantly indicate the speed with which the laser product is already or is likely to be available in the marketplace, and could potentially penetrate the surgeon market.

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