Quantitative Tools of Project Management by David L. Olson

Author:David L. Olson
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Business Expert Press
Published: 2020-07-15T00:00:00+00:00

Table 4.14 Model results

Range

Occurrences

Probability

PERT probability

Below 10 weeks

0

0.00

0.03

Between 10 and 10.5 weeks

2

0.02

0.06

Between 10.5 and 11 weeks

2

0.02

0.14

Between 11 and 11.5 weeks

10

0.10

0.27

Between 11.5 and 12 weeks

18

0.18

0.27

Between 12 and 12.5 weeks

21

0.21

0.16

Between 12.5 and 13 weeks

17

0.17

0.06

Between 13 and 13.5 weeks

17

0.17

0.01

Between 13.5 and 14 weeks

12

0.12

0.00

Over 14 weeks (<14.5)

1

0.01

0.00

We can see that the expected project duration is almost certain to exceed 10 weeks (with a 0.96 probability of exceeding 11 weeks) and will very likely be completed within 14 weeks. But there is a lot of variance between these limits. There is a 0.28 probability that the project will take between 11 and 12 weeks, a 0.38 probability that it will take between 12 and 13 weeks, and a 0.30 probability that it will take over 13 weeks. These results demonstrate the theoretical bias of PERT to be below the true values. Simulation provides output that enables interpretation of probability for any particular duration or range. Relying on sampling theory, the degree of accuracy of these estimates is a matter of the number of samples (runs) taken.

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.