Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus by Carrier Richard C

Author:Carrier, Richard C. [Carrier, Richard C.]
Language: eng
Format: epub, mobi, pdf
Publisher: Prometheus Books
Published: 2012-04-03T04:00:00+00:00

FABRICATORY TREND

“Whenever a saying or story reflects a known tendency of the developing tradition, the historian must suspect that saying's historicity,” which is again only exclusionary.106 For example, the trend in the Gospels toward magnifying Jesus over time casts such magnification into doubt. And yet Paul, our earliest source, already has a rather high Christology, substantially predating the Gospels. So you have to take great care to ensure the trend you claim is there is really there, and not something that's been inherent in the tradition from its inception. But once that requirement is met, this criterion becomes a valid element of determining prior probability. In effect, to say that a claim conforms to an observed trend of legendary development is to say that our background knowledge establishes a high prior probability that more of the same will also be legendary. Of course, that prior being high does not alone entail such a detail is legendary, since a ratio of consequents strongly favoring historicity can still prevail. Hence, this criterion is again subsumed by BT.

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