Practical Strategies for Applied Budgeting and Fiscal Administration by Weiler Spencer C.;Serna Gabriel R.; & Gabriel R. Serna

Author:Weiler, Spencer C.;Serna, Gabriel R.; & Gabriel R. Serna
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Incorporated

CONCLUSION

In this chapter we have covered the basic tools and techniques available to budget managers and analysts when anticipating a future state of events or for examining the consequences of possible courses of action. We have highlighted the fact that although forecasting is often seen as a technical or procedural exercise, it usefulness lies in the ability to access good data and skills. It also relies heavily upon the judgment and assumptions of the individuals working within a specific context. Because the organizational conditions of schools, colleges, and universities can often be idiosyncratic, knowing the local culture, context, and conditions makes forecasts that much more reliable.

Finally, it is always important to remember that though many approaches to forecasting take on formal logical structures that are mathematical in nature, the ability of the forecast to provide useful information is primarily dependent upon the assumptions made about the model and the human judgment that goes into interpreting the results. Regardless of the method employed, there will always be a difference between the true values and the forecasted ones. The job of those responsible with forecasting is to get as close as possible.

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