Pakistan’s Political Labyrinths by Unknown

Author:Unknown
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Taylor and Francis

Al-Qaeda ups the ante

On 3 September 2014, al-Qaeda’s amir, Ayman al-Zawahiri, announced the creation of a new al-Qaeda affiliate in South Asia. Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) was two years in the making, according to Zawahiri, and its formation reflects critical changes in al-Qaeda and the Punjabi militant milieu.76 Since 2008, US drone strikes have decimated the al-Qaeda organization in Pakistan, killing numerous leaders and high-level operatives and leaving only a handful of senior Arabs alive.77 These strikes also created a hostile environment for surviving al-Qaeda leaders, while developments in the Middle East, including the civil war in Syria, made that the region a more attractive base for operations.78 The depletion of al-Qaeda’s senior ranks in Pakistan coincided with the growing strength of al-Qaeda affiliates in other locations, most notably al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula or AQAP. In August 2013, Ayman al-Zawahiri appointed AQAP amir, Nasir al-Wihayshi as al-Qaeda’s general manager for global operations.79 Before al-Wihayshi was killed by a US drone in the summer of 2015, it was conceivable that he would have assumed the top slot if Zawahiri were killed or captured. Even with al-Wihayshi dead, it is possible that at some point ‘core AQ’ could shift entirely from South Asia back to the Arab world.80

As Arab al-Qaeda members in South Asia died or fled, Pakistanis, including powerful Punjabi militants, filled the void.81 Al-Qaeda ties to Punjabi militant groups stretch back decades.82 Since the eruption of the insurgency in Pakistan, al-Qaeda has provided planning, financing, and technical assistance to various anti-state Punjabi militants, including, but not limited to, the Punjabi Taliban.83 This likely contributed to al-Qaeda’s influence over these Punjabi militant actors. Indeed, al-Qaeda reportedly was known to arbitrate among them, when necessary.84 In recent years, notable Punjabi militants joined al-Qaeda, including the now-deceased Ilyas Kashmiri and Badr Mansur, who split from HuJI and HuM, respectively.85 Maulana Asim Umar, who leads AQIS, had a strong affiliation with HuM.86 In short, although the organizational contours of AQIS were still taking shape at the time of writing, historical ties suggest anti-state Punjabi militants might play a prominent role in the new organization.

In the video announcing AQIS, al-Zawahiri, Asim Umar, and the AQIS spokesman, Osama Mahmood, outlined the new group’s mission as the re-conquest of al-Hind, an area that encompasses all of India, most of Pakistan, Bangladesh, and parts of Myanmar. As more Pakistanis joined al-Qaeda, its media operations focused more on Pakistan and India.87 AQIS likely intended its inaugural message to appeal to Punjabi militants, in particular, for whom jihad against India has always resonated strongly. In another video released earlier in 2014, Asim Umar, the AQIS amir, called on Kashmiri Muslims to join al-Qaeda’s ranks and accused the Pakistani government of forsaking their cause.88

The focus on India is not simply rhetorical. Before his death, Ilyas Kashmiri sought to expand al-Qaeda’s attack capabilities in India. His efforts included recruiting Abdur Rehman Syed, a former Pakistani army officer and LeT member who launched an outfit called Jund-ul-Fida [Army of Fidayeen].

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