Low-Carbon Development for Mexico by Todd M. Johnson Claudio Alatorre Zayra Romo Feng Liu

Author:Todd M. Johnson, Claudio Alatorre, Zayra Romo, Feng Liu [Johnson, Todd M.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 978-0-8213-8122-9
Publisher: THE WORLD BANK
Published: 2010-08-15T00:00:00+00:00

The Baseline Scenario

Under the baseline scenario, emissions from the agriculture and forestry sector decrease slightly, from about 100 Mt CO2e a year in 2008 to 87 Mt CO2e in 2030. Agriculture and livestock accounted for 7 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in Mexico in 2002 (SEMARNAT and INE 2006a); the baseline scenario assumes that these emissions remain at roughly the same levels in absolute terms. The forestry subsector contributes about 14 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, mostly because of deforestation. The baseline assumes that greenhouse gas emissions from the forestry sector remain constant in absolute terms but also that, based on current reforestation and afforestation trends, net forestry emissions decline slightly over the coming decades.

Historically, three patterns of deforestation have been observed in Mexico: (a) clearing of temperate coniferous, tropical, and subtropical forests for subsistence agriculture and cattle grazing; (b) deforestation in tropical forests associated with the settling of land under the agrarian reform; and (c) land clearing for commercial large-scale cattle ranching and farming. Deforestation by small farmers has been decreasing over the past 20 years because of urban migration and because government-supported land settlement has officially ended.2 The clearing of forests for large-scale agriculture may be more or less intense in the future depending on market conditions and government land policy.

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