Harnessing Complexity by Cohen Michael D. Axelrod Robert

Author:Cohen, Michael D., Axelrod, Robert [AXELROD, ROBERT and MICHAEL D. COHEN]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Basic Books
Published: 2011-12-23T16:00:00+00:00

Example: Combating the AIDS Virus, Part 2

Earlier we recounted the enriched understanding of the spread of HIV that has come from appreciating the role of interaction patterns. There is more to the story, and its second half illustrates the idea of external interventions in patterns of interaction. Now that views on HIV infectiousness have changed to acknowledge its very high levels in the few weeks after it enters the body, important new questions have been brought to the foreground. A major one is how to evaluate the effectiveness of potential vaccines.

From the point of view of an individual receiving a vaccine, the important questions are whether it will lower the chances of acquiring the virus or will reduce the severity of the illness. But from the point of view of the population and its interactions—the viewpoint we are urging here—there is also the question of whether the vaccine will alter the probability that an infected person will pass the virus on to others who are uninfected. Acquiring the virus and transmitting it are different processes. It could happen that a vaccination might not fully protect those receiving it but could still be able to stop the spread of the virus through the population by diminishing infectiousness, the likelihood that the infected person will pass the virus on. The work on nonrandom mixing, by dramatically altering understanding of infectiousness, has now contributed to revised ideas about how to evaluate vaccine trials. As a result, it will be possible to choose among vaccines based on a better evaluation of how each treatment would affect the total number of people who will become infected. Through the improved ability to appraise those consequences, millions may be spared the suffering and death of AIDS.

Carl Simon is a veteran of analyzing Complex Adaptive Systems in our BACH group. Together with many others, he has translated ideas about complex systems into the most tangible results, the health of human beings.

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.