Human Error by James Reason

Author:James Reason [Reason, James]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780521306690
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 0101-01-01T00:00:00+00:00

Table 5.2. Product-moment correlations between the model’s output and data from U.K. and U.S. students.

Human subject measure

Correlation with model output

U.K. recall data

0.93 **

U.S. recall data

0.78 **

U.K. recognition data

0.87 **

U.K. frequency ratings

0.93 **

** = p < .001

Interestingly, the ACTFOE measure, by which the model was actually ‘tuned’, correlated less well with the program’s performance than did the rated frequencies of encounter obtained from the British psychology students. One interpretation of this finding is that these actual encounters by 10 individuals over a period of 13 weeks in the autumn of 1986 constituted a less reliable mapping of presidential salience than the more global and impressionistic ratings made by the larger undergraduate sample. Certainly these estimates corresponded more closely to the performance of the U.S. students 10 years earlier (r = 0.94, as opposed to 0.324 between ACTFOE and U.S. recall). This suggests that although relative presidential salience differs slightly from one side of the Atlantic to the other (Americans are more knowledgeable about the early presidents than their British counterparts), there is nevertheless a good deal of commonality across the two cultures.

The results for both the model and the humans were consistent with the theoretical assumptions spelled out earlier in the chapter. That is, when a retrieval task is minimally specified, as is the case in category generation, the responses will show maximum influence of the frequency-gambling retrieval heuristic.

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