War And Anti War by Alvin Toffler; Heidi Toffler

Author:Alvin Toffler; Heidi Toffler
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Modern History, Warfare, Industrialization, Third Wave, Future Shock
Published: 1993-10-03T04:00:00+00:00

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PLOUGHSHARES INTO SWORDS

O NE OF THE THINGS the introduction of a new war-form does is profoundly upset existing military balances. That is exactly what happened in the past when, on August 23, 1793, an embattled France, bloodied by revolution and about to be tom apart by invading troops, suddenly imposed universal conscription. The words of the decree were dramatic:

“From this moment... all Frenchmen are in permanent requisition for the service of the armies. The young shall fight; the married men shall forge arms and transport provisions; the women shall make tents and clothing and serve in hospitals; the children shall turn old linen into bandages; the aged shall betake themselves to public places to arouse the courage of the soldiers ”

This levy introduced mass warfare into modern history,

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Alvin and Heidi Toffler

and was soon combined with innovations in artillery, tactics, communication, and organization, thus giving rise to a powerful new way of making war. Within twenty years France’s draftee army, now led by Napoleon, had overrun Europe and marched all the way to Moscow. On September 14, 1812, Napoleon could actually see that city’s golden domes sparkling in the sunlight.

Napoleon still had to contend with British sea power. But on the Continent his was the only military force that mattered. Europe had gone from a “multi-polar” to a “uni-polar” structure of power.

The Second Wave war-form, then still in embryonic form, could not guarantee victory when, as in the case of the Russian campaign, Napoleon’s supply lines were overextended. Nor could it be used to subdue guerrillas in Spain. But its efficacy was so clear that first Prussia, then other European armies, moved to adopt and further develop many of the French innovations.

Historical analogies are always suspect. Nevertheless, certain similarities between Napoleon’s world and our own should give us pause. The United States, too, in introducing a new war-form into history, has radically upset the existing balance of military power, this time not on a single continent but around the globe. Its increasingly Third Wave military tilted the balance so decisively that the Soviet forces in Europe lost their parity with those of the United States and NATO. The combination of the West’s knowledge-intensive military, backed by fast-growing knowledge-intensive economies, made the difference that led, ultimately, to the collapse of communism. America emerged as the sole superpower on earth. And the result was once again, a unipolar system.

The actual application of the Third Wave war-form in the Gulf, even in partial and modified form, proved its effectiveness for all to see. And again, like Prussia in the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars, armies all over the planet today are trying to imitate the United States to the extent possible.

From France, Germany, and Italy to Turkey, Russia, and China the exact same words crop up in their announced plans: rapid deployment . . . professionalization . . . better

War and Anti-War

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electronic air defense ... C 3 I... precision .. * less reliance on conscription . . . combined operations . . . interdiction .

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