Thermal Power Plant Performance Analysis by Gilberto Francisco Martha Francisco Martha de Souza

Author:Gilberto Francisco Martha Francisco Martha de Souza
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer London, London

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In Eq. 4, the likelihood can be measured in terms of a probability. Equation 4 presents risk as an expected value of loss or an average loss. A plot of occurrence probabilities and consequences is called a risk profile or a Farmer curve. An example Farmer curve is given in Fig. 1 based on a nuclear case study, provided herein for illustration purposes. It should be noted that the abscissa provides the number of fatalities, and the ordinate provides the annual frequency of exceedence for the corresponding number of fatalities. These curves are sometimes constructed using probabilities instead of frequencies. The curves represent or median average values. Sometimes, bands or ranges are provided to represent uncertainty in these curves. They represent confidence intervals for the average curve or for the risk curve. Figure 2 shows examples curves with uncertainty bands. This uncertainty is sometimes called meta-uncertainty. A complete treatment of uncertainty analysis is provided by Ayyub and Klir [4].

Fig. 1Example risk profile

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