The Rightful Place of Science by Roger Pielke

Author:Roger Pielke
Language: eng
Format: azw3
ISBN: 9780692297513
Publisher: Consortium for Science, Policy & Outcomes, Arizona State University
Published: 2015-01-29T05:00:00+00:00

Source: NOAA/NHC.

The graph above shows a count of U.S. hurricane landfalls from 1900.[77] It shows no evidence indicating that hurricane landfalls have increased since 1900, a finding that holds if one starts the analysis in 1851 (when NOAA’s dataset begins) or 1950. There is an upwards trend if the count is arbitrarily started in 1970, the lowest period of activity since 1900.

But that is storm frequency. What about storm intensity, in particular, the strength of storms when they make landfall?

The graph below shows the U.S. landfall intensity data for 1900 through 2013. There is no upwards trend since 1900, consistent with the trends in normalized losses. There is similarly no upwards trend in the data since 1950, but there is if the analysis is started in 1970, as is the case with landfall frequency.

Figure 5.3: Intensity of U.S. Hurricane Landfalls by Year (1900-2013)

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