The Power In the Land by Fred Harrison

Author:Fred Harrison
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Shepheard Walwyn Publishers

And in 1955-1956 the few remaining landlords, who had suffered psychological as well as economic distress during the previous decade, disclosed ‘signs of a renewed offensive ... to get back their land’,10 the turning point in attitudes which was to prove significant in the land market.

The test of the fundamental importance of a theory or set of empirical observations is whether useful predictions can be derived. What do Ohkawa and Rosovsky tell us ? They completed their study in 1972. After taking into account considerations such as the rate at which Japan was assimilating imported technology, changing attitudes of workers and the threat of protectionism against Japanese exports, Ohkawa and Rosovsky predicted a slowdown in the rate of growth of Japan’s national product toward the end of the 1970s.11 In fact, the economy was going into a nose-dive in 1973, the very year in which their book was published. And 1973, of course, is 18 years after the beginning of the postwar cycle in land values. Before seeking to establish the causal connection between land values and the performance of the economy in the downturn of the business cycle, it is necessary to trace the movements in values over the cycle.

First, agricultural land. Between 1960 and 1971, the national average price of middle-grade paddy land increased sixfold, at a compound annual rate of increase of 18.1%. The increase was on an accelerating trend, reaching an annual rate of over 20% after 1967. A study by the Food and Agricultural Organisation recorded the effect:

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