Survival of the City by Edward Glaeser & David Cutler

Author:Edward Glaeser & David Cutler [Glaeser, Edward & Cutler, David]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Published: 2021-09-07T00:00:00+00:00

Did Longer Sentences Lead to Less Crime?

As if on cue, crime immediately started to fall after the three-strikes laws were passed. The national homicide rate dropped every year from 1993 to 2000, reaching 5.5 murders per 100,000 in the last year of Clinton’s presidency. The number of murders in New York City fell from 2,245 in 1990 to 673 in 2000. Between 2016 and 2019, New York saw fewer than 350 murders per year, which is less than 4 murders per 100,000. Not only is New York much safer than it was, but it is now safer than the nation as a whole, at least as measured by homicides.

Were the three-strikes laws, and increased incarceration more generally, responsible for the increased safety of America’s cities after 1993? Unfortunately, the answer is unclear. There are other suspects for the drop in crime, including increasing numbers of police (especially in New York City), changing police strategies, fewer drug-related gang conflicts, legalized abortion, and reduced exposure of children to lead. Some even argue that video games led to less crime.

Mass incarceration can impact crime through three distinct channels. First, prisons can deter crime, as longer sentences may make criminals warier of risking arrest. Second, prisons can incapacitate crime-prone individuals. Ida Ballasiotes certainly did not believe that Gene Kane and Earl Shriner could be scared straight, but she did believe that if they were locked up, they would do less harm. Third, exposure to other criminals while in prison may lead to more crime when a released convict finds it difficult to get a legal job.

One recent study by Eric Helland of Claremont McKenna College and Alex Tabarrok of George Mason University focuses specifically on the deterrent effect of three strikes. The study is ingenious. It compares two sets of criminals, all of whom have been charged for two serious offenses. Some of those criminals were convicted of two offenses and will be in prison (“out”) for life on their next conviction. Others of those criminals were convicted on one serious and one lesser offense and will not be sentenced to life for their next conviction. By comparing these two groups, the authors estimate the deterrent effect of being at risk of going to jail forever.

Their estimate is that the three-strikes law reduced the crime rate for these two-crime offenders by about one fifth. However, the public cost of imprisoning a person is large, about $35,000 per person per year, and that’s not including the more onerous burden borne by the prisoner. As a result, when they compare costs and benefits, they find that every crime avoided costs almost $150,000 in additional jail spending. Other estimates suggest a social benefit of $34,000 per crime avoided. A meta-analysis of prison sentencing studies (funded by Open Philanthropy, a foundation dedicated to prison reform) “calls even those mild estimates into question.” The deterrence impact of longer sentences seems only moderately beneficial at best.

The case is stronger for the connection between incapacitation and crime. A classic study by

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