Stock Trader's Almanac 2021 by Christopher Mistal

Author:Christopher Mistal [Mistal, Christopher]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781119778776
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2020-11-17T00:00:00+00:00

A RALLY FOR ALL SEASONS

Most years, especially when the market sells off during the first half, prospects for the perennial summer rally become the buzz on the Street. Parameters for this “rally” were defined by the late Ralph Rotnem as the lowest close in the Dow Jones Industrials in May or June to the highest close in July, August, or September. Such a big deal is made of the “summer rally” that one might get the impression the market puts on its best performance in the summertime. Nothing could be further from the truth! Not only does the market “rally” in every season of the year, but it does so with more gusto in the winter, spring and fall than in the summer.

Winters in 57 years averaged a 12.9% gain as measured from the low in November or December to the first quarter closing high. Spring rose 11.8%, followed by fall with 11.0%. Last and least was the average 9.2% “summer rally.” Even 2009’s impressive 19.7% “summer rally” was outmatched by spring. Nevertheless, no matter how thick the gloom or grim the outlook, don’t despair! There’s always a rally for all seasons, statistically.

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