Science for a Green New Deal by Eric A. Davidson

Author:Eric A. Davidson
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press
Published: 2022-06-15T00:00:00+00:00

Electrification of transportation is another basic tenet of a green new deal, which will require policies that incentivize consumers, manufacturers, and engineers to develop and adopt consumer-attractive electric vehicles (EVs) and abundant charging stations. After that initial boost, EVs will become mainstream and will advance by market forces, just as renewable energy is now economically favorable.

While these trends are very promising, the challenge of decarbonizing our society as quickly as possible is immense. It is beyond the scope of this book to propose the specific combination of market-based, incentive-based, or regulatory approaches needed for each sector and subsector of the economy. The Biden administration is currently not pursuing a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade option per se as part of its climate change agenda. Instead, its initial proposal was a combination of approaches: it would have incentivized electric utility companies to increase electricity generation from renewable sources with a set of rewards for reaching targets and fines for missing them; it avoided strict regulatory mandates, but the penalties for not meeting targets could be significant; and it gave utilities some flexibility to take advantage of market opportunities to figure out the most efficient and cost-effective way to achieve renewable energy targets. The rewards for reaching targets would also be shared with consumers, thus helping keep costs down for low-income households. The plan also proposed incentives for auto manufacturers and consumers to transition rapidly to electric vehicles. At the time of this writing, a compromise between the president and key members of Congress had not yet been reached.

We will need some judicious combination of these proposed carrots and sticks and market-driven technological developments, both now and in the future. The choices will not be easy and the debates will be vigorous because they will explore both what is technologically possible and what various stakeholders value. I believe that a price on carbon, either through a tax or through cap-and-trade or through incentives and penalties, will ultimately be necessary to achieve the needed deep decarbonization, but I support other solutions as well. In addition to national policies, we need a policy environment in which local innovation by communities, businesses, and individuals can flourish with broad engagement of many stakeholders.

Congressional action in 2022 will by no means be the last word; the United States and other countries will require additional steps to meet their Glasgow COP26 pledges and more. Those pledges were not enough, as recognized by the final agreement that the countries of the world must return in 2022 and subsequent years with more ambitious pledges by the wealthy nations to cut emissions further and more quickly, to meet past pledges of providing $100 billion annually to finance mitigation in poorer countries, and to at least double funding to those countries to help them adapt to climate change already underway. The private sector also stepped up at the COP26 meeting to pledge more than $130 trillion to transform the economy to net zero emissions, which is estimated to be about 70% of what is needed to get the job done, again assuming that pledges are honored.

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