Language vs. Reality by N.J. Enfield

Author:N.J. Enfield
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: MIT Press

Which one do you choose? One difference between the two programs is that the outcome of program A is certain (200 people will be saved), while program B involves risk. That said, on balance, program B has the prospect of equal value and could even save everyone. In an experiment testing people’s response in this task by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, the respondents were found to be firmly risk averse. Nearly three-quarters chose program A, opting for certainty (while tolerating a significant known cost).

But certainty versus risk is not the only factor. Look at the language of program A. Its outcome is framed in terms of how many people will be saved. An alternative framing would involve a simple change of wording: from “200 (out of 600) people will be saved” to the equivalent “400 (out of 600) people will die.” In Frege’s terms, these two statements have the same reference but decidedly different senses. And unlike the seemingly arbitrary choice between Evening Star and Morning Star for Venus, the difference really does make a difference.

In the next part of the experiment, people were given the same problem but in a different frame, now presented in terms of how many would die rather than how many would be saved:

If program C is adopted, 400 people will die.

If program D is adopted, there is one-third probability that nobody will die and two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.

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