The Mystery of Market Movements by Niklas Hageback

Author:Niklas Hageback
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781118844984
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2014-06-03T00:00:00+00:00

Conclusion

Existing methodologies that aim to describe and forecast the investor sentiments that underpin trends and financial bubbles appear to be lacking; their projective capabilities have proven lackluster. What seems to be the switch between rational and irrational behaviour among the investor collective requires a dynamic effort in a modelling attempt that considers influences from the collective unconscious.

Notes

1. “Crowd Psychology,” in Blackwell Encyclopedia of Social Psychology, ed. A. S. R. Manstead and M. Hewstone (Oxford, UK: Blackwell, 1996), 152–156.

2. “What Is Crowd Psychology?” www.wisegeek.com, (accessed November 30, 2013).

3. M. S. Greenberg, “Crowd psychology,” in The Corsini Encyclopedia of Psychology, 4th ed., ed. Irving B. Weiner and W. Edward Craighead (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2010).

4. “Behavioural economics,” The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics Online (2008). www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/dictionary (accessed November 30, 2013).

5. Charles D. Kirkpatrick and Julie Dahlquist, Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians (Upper Saddle River, NJ: FTPress, 2006).

6. Gunduz Caginalp and Henry Laurent, “The Predictive Power of Price Patterns,” Applied Mathematical Finance 5 (1998): 181–206.

7. M. Poterba and L. H. Summers, “Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications,” Journal of Financial Economics 22 (1988): 27–59; C. Heol-Ho Park and Scott H. Irwin, “The Profitability of Technical Analysis: A Review,” AgMAS Project Research Report no. 2004–047; Ralph Nelson Elliott, R. N. Elliott's Masterworks, ed. Robert R. Prechter Jr. (Gainesville, GA: New Classics Library, 1994).

8. Ibid.

9. Justin Fox, Myth of the Rational Market (New York: HarperBusiness, 2009); Joe Nocera, “Poking Holes in a Theory on Markets,” New York Times, June 5, 2009.

10. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2nd ed. (New York: Random House Trade Paperbacks, 2010).

11. Robert R. Prechter Jr., Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction (New York: New Classics Library, 2003).

12. An interview with Robert R. Prechter Jr., “Where I Believe Socionomics Is Heading,” Socionomist June 2010.

13. John L. Casti, “Mood Matters, from Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers,” Copernicus 15 (2010).

14. Ibid., 17.

15. Johan Bollen, Huina Mao, and Xiao-Jun Zeng, “Twitter Mood Predicts the Stock Market,” Journal of Computational Science 2, no. 1 (March 2011): 1–8.

16. “Last Tweet for Derwent's Absolute Return,” Financial Times, May 24, 2012.

17. Cayman Atlantic, www.caymanatlantic.com/twitter-trading/4577095193 (accessed November 30, 2013).

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