Planning African Development by Norcliffe Glen;Pinfold Tom;Pinfold Tom;

Author:Norcliffe, Glen;Pinfold, Tom;Pinfold, Tom;
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 614854
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Group
Published: 2012-08-15T00:00:00+00:00

The Case for a Dispersal Policy

The final section of this chapter contains some policy recommendations designed to promote the dispersal of manufacturing out of Nairobi. Dispersal is advocated not as an article of faith, but in the belief that it is sound planning policy. There are two reasons for advocating dispersal, one based on the political process, the other based on the migration process.

From a geographical viewpoint, there is virtually no logic to the territorial integrity of Kenya. It has no unity by virtue of being an island like Sri Lanka, or a river basin like Burma, or a peninsula like Malaysia. It is not populated by people of common culture like Lesotho. It is not a highland state like Bolivia, nor one unified by having an economy based on a dominant resource, religion, or industry. Like many other countries, Kenya is a conglomerate of vastly differing regions and cultures. Some unity has been imposed by the construction of transport and communication networks focusing on Nairobi, and by the articulation of administrative and commercial systems. Nevertheless, there is not a great deal of geographical logic to Kenya. One has only to look at the secessionist movements in neighbouring Ethiopia and Sudan to be reminded that regional dissatisfaction can easily find expression as a movement for political autonomy. As Harris argues, nation-building in such countries must be a continuous process which involves, amongst other things, allowing each region to participate fully in the process of development.32 The continued concentration of industry in a few favoured locations will ultimately foster regional dissension, whereas the dispersal of industry amongst the major provincial towns should contribute a great deal to the continuing unity of Kenya.

The migration process provides another strong argument for industrial dispersion. Todaros model describing migration to join the urban modern sector as a two-stage process is now fairly widely accepted.33 Treating re-location costs as a constant, the model states that migration to Nairobi is a function of the probability of securing a high-paying job in Nairobis modern sector, and of the urban/rural wage differential. People therefore migrate to Nairobi and join the pool of people unemployed or employed in the traditional sector, and start searching for a job in the modern sector. Evidence in support of this model is provided by the end result of the 1964–5 and 1970–1 Tripartite Agreements: government and private industry agreed to increase their workforce by 15 per cent at once in return for the unions agreement to shelve all general wage claims (the rural/urban wage differential remaining constant). Instead of mopping-up the pool of unemployed and informal-sector employees in the urban centres covered, this merely attracted a new wave of migrants so that the exercise was counterproductive. It is likely that the Tripartite Agreement in effect during 1979 will have the same effect.

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