On thermonuclear war by Herman Kahn

Author:Herman Kahn
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Transaction Publishers

Analytic treatments of war during the last five or ten years have a real possibility of being more reliable than the same kind of attempt made in preceding decades. The reason for this is partly because we have new tools and techniques available, but mainly because in a nuclear war many of the problems that arise really are problems in physics and engineering. For example, the destructive effect of H-bombs can be predicted with sufficient reliability for most purposes. The effects of fallout are likewise susceptible to reasonable prediction. Most important of all, in many analyses, individual components or systems often end up with a score of either 0 or 100. It is usually possible to predict 0 or 100 relatively reliably, even though one could not predict some in-between number. If, for example, one is calculating the probability of penetrating a defense barrier and if there are very large holes in the barrier that the enemy can easily exploit, it may be quite simple to show that with some enemy tactics the barrier has zero effect. In other circumstances, if the equipment is working as it should work and the enemy uses a tactic for which the equipment was appropriately designed, it may be quite easy to show that if the barrier works at all it should provide about 100 per cent effectiveness. As I have said, it is of course difficult to estimate the level when the number is between 0 and 100 per cent, but this most difficult problem is often not the most important. Often all we need really to know is whether the system works or falls flat on its face. In any case it should be clear that, good or bad, for many questions paper analyses are all we have.

As we change the bulk of our strategic force from planes to mis

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