Why Vote?: Essential Questions About the Future of Elections in America by Daniel M. Shea

Author:Daniel M. Shea [Shea, Daniel M.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, General
ISBN: 9781138617896
Google: vtmMDwAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 42363140
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2019-03-18T00:00:00+00:00

Conclusion: Is There a Unifying Theory of Today’s Electoral Alignment?

Not very long ago, scholars were poised to jettison the very idea of partisan realignments. Voters were less willing to link themselves to a partisan badge, and their voting behavior underscored their ambivalence. Split-ticket voting had shot up to record levels. Party control of the White House, Congress and state legislatures shifted back and forth, voters of a single state would select a member of one party to be their governor and of another party to be their senator. Dealignment seemed more apt than any sort of long-term party dominance. Demographic-based partisan coalitions seemed a thing of the past, too.

As noted throughout this book, however, the headline of contemporary American politics is about bourgeoning partisan polarization and the reemergence of powerful electoral coalitions – key elements of critical realignment theory. In fact, speculation regarding the new electoral order has been recurrent, and the 2016 presidential election added fuel to the fire. One analyst commented, “Political realignments are inevitable and natural transformations [that] clear away underbrush, and give way to new periods of growth [and] frenzied periods of activity.”62 Others caution against premature assertions. “Realignments are not made by proclamations by rabid partisans who desperately want to believe they occurred.”63 In any event, the fundamentals of partisanship and electoral coalitions have been redefined.

This chapter has explored the shifting coalitions, ranging from the widening gender gap to the movement of working-class white voters away from Democratic ranks. We know that while the 2016 election may have been the culminating event, big changes have been underway for some time – a process scholars call secular realignment. A nagging question remains: Is there some sort of coalescing force? For the New Deal alignment, class and economic issues were foundational. The Democratic Party became an umbrella for the working class and anyone who thought government should take steps to provide a basic standard of living for all Americans, and the Republican Party represented business interest and policies that promoted personal freedom, as opposed to big government.64 In large measure, nevertheless, the two parties were moderate and heterogeneous, leading to a lower level of polarization than we see today. The two sides were often able to find common ground, as evidenced by lower party unity scores in Congress and the passage of many important pieces of legislation with bipartisan support. The first truly significant piece of legislation since World War II to pass on a party-line basis was Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act in 2010.

Are there forces or issues that form a foundational element of contemporary electoral politics? In particle physics, a unifying theory is an attempt to describe all the fundamental forces and relationships between elements in a single model. Is there a unifying theory to define today’s electoral alignment?

A growing chorus of scholars and pundits believe attitudes toward race and immigration have redefined electoral coalitions. This argument – that partisanship and electoral dynamics are now largely defined by attitudes toward race – was detailed in

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