What's the Worst That Could Happen? by Greg Craven

Author:Greg Craven
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Penguin Publishing Group

Petitions and Other Self-Selecting Statements

THE OREGON PETITION

Written in 1999 to oppose the Kyoto Protocol, the Oregon Petition has had substantial influence; Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel even held up a copy on the Senate floor during a debate on a global warming treaty. It’s morphed through several names, so if you come across any references to “a petition of 31,000 [19,000, 17,000] scientists,” “The Petition Project,” “the Oregon Petition,” or “The Global Warming Petition,” remember that they all refer to this document.

It states that there is “no convincing scientific evidence” that humans may disrupt the climate. It also asserts that limiting emissions would actually harm humans and the environment, and that increases in CO2 levels will actually be beneficial.

It suffers from several factors that significantly reduce its credibility for me. First, it was promoted with materials so well designed to look like they’d come from the National Academy of Sciences that the real NAS was forced to reassert its position on global warming in response to press inquires about why it had suddenly reversed its position.

Second, the Oregon Petition suffered from poor quality control over who got to sign it, and the organizers took off bogus names (including characters from the TV series M*A*S*H) only after the signatures were publicly ridiculed by warmers. And even if you wanted to make your own evaluation of the credibility of the signers, you wouldn’t be able to because their affiliations are not listed, so it’s impossible to look up the background of anyone.

So, despite its impressive number of signatures, this petition has almost no credibility for me. But because I haven’t established any way to demote something down out of the Big Fuzzy Middle of my credibility spectrum (and shouldn’t do so now because that would seem to be a screaming example of confirmation bias), I will limit myself to putting this petition at the very bottom of that section.

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