Turning Point by Darrell M. West

Author:Darrell M. West
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

THE BROADER GEOPOLITICAL ENVIRONMENT OF AI—ADVERSARIES

While Russia and China represent the most significant competitors in the AI space, they are far from the only international actors seeking to benefit from new and emerging technologies. States like North Korea and Iran, who use asymmetric capabilities as their central tool for foreign interference and conflict, have much to gain from advanced computing and big data analytics. These technologies inform the ways that cyber capabilities function, for instance, or the ways in which financial markets can be manipulated. And as noted earlier, AI and big data analytics can play a major role in helping governments establish an Orwellian-like surveillance state environment, which would allow authoritarian regimes to have even more control over their populations.

For Iran’s part, they are “ranked fourteenth in global AI research power, according to published articles,” Mahmoud Pargoo notes in a 2019 essay published by the Atlantic Council. He goes on to say that

Iran has also directed investments in AI to the military and security fields. There is news of an Iranian robotic army including suicide robots, auto-run mine detectors, and robotic machine guns. There are claims that Iran has tested some of its military robots in the battle against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Iraq. Iran’s rapid advances in drone and cyber technologies have intensified fears that it might use swarm intelligence (SI) in armed drones and boats to threaten the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf.51

In a region already mired in conflict, an AI-powered Iran would represent a serious threat to many Middle East allies, including the State of Israel. And this says nothing of the ways that AI would enhance Iran’s already sophisticated cyber capabilities, nor the means in which their non-state foreign assets would benefit from AI-powered technologies, such as drone swarms or adaptive disinformation technology.

In terms of non-state actors, these entities, including terrorist and insurgent organizations, are highly likely to benefit from AI advancements. Reports have indicated that groups like ISIS have already incorporated drones into their operations, using them for reconnaissance or as delivery systems for bombs. One can only imagine that with the development of swarming drone technology, it will likely provide such groups a battlefield technology difficult to counter through traditional means, enhancing their ability to terrorize populations in the process. In addition, transnational criminal networks could easily benefit from AI and other emerging technologies as they pursue their illegal operations all over the world.

As noted by a 2019 OSCE report

It is commonly agreed that AI techniques have great future potentials for law enforcement, both with regard to day-to-day policing and countering terrorism and transnational organized crime. At the same time, history teaches us that criminals and criminal organizations attempt to misuse new technologies to conduct or bolster their illegal activities. Indeed, they are often the first “entrepreneurs” in terms of applying new technologies. Therefore, law enforcement authorities and agencies have no other option than to familiarize themselves with the new developments, methods, and techniques available in this area.

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