Transition Scenarios: China and the United States in the Twenty-First Century by David P. Rapkin & William R. Thompson

Author:David P. Rapkin & William R. Thompson [Rapkin, David P. & Thompson, William R.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, General, International Relations, Trade & Tariffs, Business & Economics, International
ISBN: 9780226040509
Google: dSI3AAAAQBAJ
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Published: 2013-09-24T03:31:19+00:00

CHAPTER SEVEN

Weak Conflict Constraints and Weak Conflict Inducements: The “More of the Same” and “Pax Americana II” Scenarios

In the next few chapters, we present a series of five scenarios that represent the four possible intersections of our conflict and constraint drivers. In chapter 2, we specified a 2 × 2 matrix of factors facilitating conflict and constraints on conflict. The result is a four-celled matrix with each cell representing a unique mix of the two categorical variables. One or more scenarios need to be constructed for each of the four cells identified in figure 2.1. The “need to be constructed” requires stressing. Specifying matrix cells does not magically yield one and only one possible scenario. On the contrary, each scenario must be constructed within the parameters established by the combination of the chosen variables. Therefore, infinitely varying stories might be told within each cell configuration. But we have no need to tell infinitely varying scenarios. What we need are broadly representative story lines that work within the theoretical frame indicated by each cell’s combination of parameters.

Without these parameters, we are simply telling stories.1 It is possible that we could end up with similar stories to those constructed within the varying parameters but how would we know if we had “covered the water front”? Indeed, most scenarios are single stories and we can either take them or leave them, as demonstrated in chapter 3. Occasionally, analysts will offer multiple scenarios from which to choose. But how do we know that the multiple set that is offered is reasonably comprehensive of the alternative possibilities? The 2×2 matrix forces the analyst to develop story lines in all four matrix cells—as opposed to focusing randomly or concentrating on one or two of the four on the basis of unstated preferences or bets about the future.

Starting in the upper left-hand cell, a combination of weak conflict facilitators and weak constraints yields two possibilities—a situation in which things stay roughly as they are today (termed “More of the Same”) or, alternatively, a reversal of the transition dynamic due to a resurgence in US relative strength (“Pax Americana II”), which reverses the relative decline and halts the movement toward transition. In the upper right-hand cell of figure 2.1, strong conflict facilitators are combined with weak constraints, leading to a transitional war (chapter 8). In the lower right-hand cell, strong conflict facilitators are paired with strong constraints. The scenario in this chapter (chapter 9) leads to a Chinese transition and world order (“Pax Sinica”) attained relatively peacefully. Finally, the lower left-hand cell in figure 2.1 links weak conflict facilitators with strong constraints. A liberal peace scenario (chapter 10) seems most appropriate for this corner of the theoretical matrix.

These five scenarios represent alternative futures, with a pronounced emphasis on a possible US-China structural transition and some of the contingencies that might be associated with such a phenomenon. Do they exhaust all conceivable outcomes?—certainly not. But they are intended to be reasonably comprehensive in running the gamut of the most conceivable possibilities, given our theoretical priors.

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