The Improbable War: China, The United States and Logic of Great Power Conflict

Author:Christopher Coker
Language: eng
Format: epub
Published: 2015-01-31T00:02:02+00:00

scenario the status quo power remains pre-eminent while the rising

power fades like an athlete who peaks too soon. The report concluded

that this outcome was unlikely—the United States would simply lack

the financial means or technological capacity to trump the Chinese.

In the third scenario America’s position continues to erode, but the

country does not decline either. It is still able to compete, as can a reju-

venated Japan. Here the trap waits to be sprung, triggered by an inci-

dent in the South China Seas, or diplomatic tensions which are allowed

to translate into open competition. But both powers manage to avoid

war—just. The tensions between them prove to be manageable. The

status quo power still retains a marginal but important advantage: the

rising power is not sufficiently strong or internally cohesive to take too

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