The Future of Us by Liz Allen

Author:Liz Allen
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: NewSouth Publishing

Population, policy and immigration threats

Looking at the growth of the Australian population since 1901, it’s clear that the total estimated resident population has seen a steady and sustained increase. This is no coincidence, and no mistake: population growth has been vital to Australia’s economic prosperity.

FIGURE 4.1 Population size and growth rate, Australia, 1901–201819

NOTE Data do not include accurate Indigenous population figures until 1971, and Indigenous births have only been recorded since 1966. Breaks in the line represent gaps in the trend data.

Figure 4.1 shows the number of people in Australia climbing from around 4 million at Federation to around 25 million in 2018. The population over time is represented by the dark line, which has a straightforward upward trajectory. The growth rate, on the other hand, represented by the lighter line, has fluctuated substantially over the past century, due to differences in the year-on-year changes in magnitude. Since the 1970s, annual population growth has blipped up and down, not surprising given the sociodemographic events of the past 50 years. What stands out most in recent years is the spike in 2008, peaking at 2.2 per cent growth for the year. This spike sticks out. But the increase leading to the spike and the rates since tell an equally fascinating story.

Following John Howard’s intimation in 2001 that immigration – particularly the immigration of people of Islamic faith – was a threat to national security, population growth dropped to 1.1 per cent. Then, in 2005, it began to climb again – 1.3 in 2005, 1.6 in 2006, 1.9 in 2007 – until it reached a peak of 2.2 per cent in 2008. This increase coincided with the transition in 2005 from natural increase representing the biggest share of population growth to net overseas migration. This was despite federal treasurer Peter Costello’s call to the nation to procreate, which, as we discussed in Chapter 2, had absolutely no effect. The climb down from the 2008 peak occurred at the same time as the global financial crisis, which Australia was somewhat protected from by the actions of the Labor government of the day. From the 2.2 per cent high, population growth dropped to 1.8 in 2009 and then to 1.4 per cent in 2010.

Population projections released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in 2008 had Australia’s population reaching 35.5 million people by 2056.20 Kevin Rudd was all in favour of this growth, openly welcoming this potential future population. But when the Intergenerational Report was published by the Department of the Treasury in 2009, it calculated that Australia would reach 35.9 million people by 2050, earlier than projected by the ABS.21 A bigger population, coming sooner than expected. The crap hit the fan. Rudd remained committed to his so-called big Australia – until it became clear that the general public didn’t agree. The issue exploded, both in the media and the community. Politicians in particular had a great amount to say on the matter. Rudd’s own party colleagues were running scared, and called for brakes on population.

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